A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
