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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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